Boundary Commission Reflections
12 September 2011 by Paul Rhoades
The boundary commission have released their initial proposals as far as changes next year go as to what the makeup of the "Scunthorpe County" constituency will be.
This is the area currently represented by Nic Dakin, and before any one points out that Scunthorpe is not a county I agree, but that's the official title of the ward as represented by the current MP so that's the terminology I'll use here.
the initial recommendations, which will now become available for public consultation, recommend the following wards be joined together to form the Scunthorpe County Constituency:
Ashby,
Axholme Central,
Axholme South,
Bottesford,
Brumby,
Burringham & Gunness
Crosby & Park
Froddingham
Kingsway / Lincoln Gardens
Ridge
Town
These 11 wards are represented at North Lincolnshire Council by 27 local councillors, their political composition currently stands at 8 Tories and 19 Labour.
The current Scunthorpe constituency consists of the following wards
Ashby
Bottesford
Brumby
Crosby
Froddingham
Kingsway / Lincoln Gardens
Ridge
Town
Currently Scunthorpe CC is represented by 22 ward councillors, consisting of 19 Labour and 3 Conservative.
Will the addition of Burringham and Gunness (A very closely contested Labour win at the last local election) help tip the balance in favor of the conservatives, along with the inclusion of two of the Isle wards?
Looking at voting patterns across these constituencies, and also considering the position of Bottesford (split currently between 2 Labour and 1 Tory), it may be that the next election for the MP of Scunthorpe County becomes really closely contested. Again this will depend upon the caliber of the conservative candidate put forward.
At the last election Scunthorpe Tories came under criticism for standing Dr Caroline Johnson from Retford, being unable to find a local candidate of suitable standing locally.
Having said that, the margin between the successful Labour candidate Nic Dakin and Dr Johnson was just 2,500 votes, which is one of the narrowest Labour leads since Elliot Morley was controversially elected in 1987.
This may suggest that if the local Tories can groom one of their clan then they may actually stand a chance come the next election. I guess it all boils down to just how well the likes of the current council leader Liz Redfern and her close colleague Rob Waltham can listen to, respond to and gain the trust of local residents.
It would not surprise me if Rob Waltham ultimately becomes the next Tory candidate, given his high profile cabinet position and his heavy involvement in the community in general.
Have your say
What are your thoughts on the proposed boundary changes? Will these be good for the town or bad? Do you think they will effect the future political makeup of Scunthorpe?
You can download the commissions full report from here:
You can have your say about Scunthorpe by emailing:
yorkshumber@bcommengland.x.gsi.gov.uk
or via the website at:
www.consultation.boundarycommissionforengland.independent.gov.uk
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Comments
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Black flag is quite right, the analysis is based on the good old Scunthorpian Binary State of Mind!
The turn out at the last elextion was
Dakin Labour 14.640
Johnson Conservative 12.091
Poole Liberal Democrat 6.774
Collins UKIP 1,686
Ward BNP 1,447
Hurst Green 396
So the "others" totaled 10,303
Most interesting from this is that Poole the liberal democrat is now a Tory, does this reflect the voting intention of most liberal democrats? IE will some of their vote go with the tory vote?
More interesting however, and why I've taken the bi-party line in the above article is that if you add up the votes for these wards in terms of conservatives vs labour votes, then you see labour with a total of 35,355 from all the wards in the new CC and 28,368 conservative
Factoring these votes in to "voters" (cos remember, you had 2 or three choices of candidate at the last election) gives you a projected voting intention based on this May's election results of 13,186 Labour vs 11,323 Tory.
Well thats going to make it expensive for a candidate at the next general election.
all those extra voters that need to be reached! well, expensive for anyone who doesnt have a party to bankroll them.
although saying that maybe the parties just wont bother with campaigning. they know that some people will blindly vote for party candidates without even knowing the name of the candidate.
the two main parties want the status quo maintaining. the lib dems are irrelevant. UKIP are chasing after third party status because the Lib dems are now irrelevant, so the choices are very limited, even if the boundary changes increase the size of the voting numbers.
Going off your figures, i would say that for a candidate to win the seat after the changes needs 32k-35k in votes as opposed to what it was before which was around 15k in votes. That is a huge difference.
There really is little chance of anyone other than the tory or Labour candidate getting in at the 2015 election with numbers like that.
Final thought. there was no independent candidate at the last GE. It is possible for individuals to reach the electorate as our local elections show. lots of votes were cast for independent candidates so it would be possible for an independent candiate to consolidate all those voters at a GE.
all those extra voters that need to be reached! well, expensive for anyone who doesnt have a party to bankroll them.
although saying that maybe the parties just wont bother with campaigning. they know that some people will blindly vote for party candidates without even knowing the name of the candidate.
the two main parties want the status quo maintaining. the lib dems are irrelevant. UKIP are chasing after third party status because the Lib dems are now irrelevant, so the choices are very limited, even if the boundary changes increase the size of the voting numbers.
Going off your figures, i would say that for a candidate to win the seat after the changes needs 32k-35k in votes as opposed to what it was before which was around 15k in votes. That is a huge difference.
There really is little chance of anyone other than the tory or Labour candidate getting in at the 2015 election with numbers like that.
Final thought. there was no independent candidate at the last GE. It is possible for individuals to reach the electorate as our local elections show. lots of votes were cast for independent candidates so it would be possible for an independent candiate to consolidate all those voters at a GE.
Dont confuse the raw data (35k votes) with individual votes, its still winnable on about 15k
the 35 / 28k figure shows each individual vote as raw data. for example in a ward where there are 3 candidates and a conservative votes for all 3 candidates then that 1 voter generates 3 votes.
The 13 / 11 k figure factors this in to account mathematically by distributing the vote among the number of candidates which were either Tory or Labor, excluding votes for any other party or independents.
Thanks for the clarification.
with that in mind it is more possible, however inprobable, for an independent candidate to win in 2015.
with that in mind it is more possible, however inprobable, for an independent candidate to win in 2015.
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The ward level analysis is interesting but very two party orientated. The Lib Dems, Green Party and UKIP vote at the local elections is low because they don't field candidates in all wards but they only need to field one candidate for a General Election and this can affect the vote considerably.
I think it will be a much tighter contest next time because it would be possible for the Tories to win it and they are therefore more likely to be able to get their supporters out. The collapse of the local Lib Dems, apart from a Ridge rump, would also affect the outcome.
As for who will be the next Tory candidate surely Pooley is in with a shot based on previous experience and local ties (local boy done good etc.).
However the next General Election is a long way off so its all to play for.
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